CHINA: BEYOND THE GOOD NEWS

Latin American influence being wrestled away from US

Last week our Brazilian neighbours and brothers concluded their own special strategic partnership package deal with China. Predictably, and given the difference in the size of both economies, the numbers involved in the Brazilian deal are larger than those of the deal with Argentina. But the impact on the respective economies is likely to be impressive. And welcome by both governments.

To say that “beggars are not choosers” sounds too harsh as well as unfair at the time of describing the context of these agreements. But it can be safely argued that China’s two South American partners were facing economic difficulties at the time of negotiating the deals. Which is likely to have made their negotiators a bit more concessive. Such is life, and there is nothing intrinsically wrong with that.

It is a truism by now to say that China is making a sustained effort to have a strong presence in the region. How much political power and influence will this mean for China as a world power is still an unknown factor. What is not unknown is that the Chinese advance is causing concern in Washington DC.

It could gallantly be said that, if Washington is concerned, it is its own problem. And that their opinion should not influence the policies in independent South American countries. But it would be wishful (and reckless) thinking. Even if geopolitics in the world are changing and the US — although still the most powerful world player — is not any more as omnipresent as it used to be. Washington still has considerable damage power. And it should not be forgotten that South America is in their area of influence, and not in China’s.

Moreover, many people who have strong reservations about US domestic and foreign policy, have equally strong reservations about Chinese policies. Which brings up the question about how much thought and time has gone into analyzing the unwritten agenda behind these agreements.

José Alfredo Graça Lima, the Brazilian diplomat who coordinated his country’s negotiators. said that there is no ideology behind this deal. This writer begs to disagree and respectfully suggests that the Itamaraty officer might want to take a new look at Hans Morgenthau’s classic “Politics Among Nations.” Expanding a Nation’s power in a region or in the world, is an ideology as comprehensive and all embracing as you can find.

Hopefully, the authorities in Brazil and Argentina have considered what — unwritten — power games might be associated with these agreements. Some signals are worrying.

As mentioned two weeks ago in this column, the mysterious space base being built by China in Neuquén triggers concerns in Washington as well as in some EU governments. True, China is not openly aggressive any more. But some of its moves in this part of the world make people uneasy about motives and objectives.

AntarcticA is another case in point

China’ presence in Antarctica is steadily and quickly increasing. Last year it opened its fourth research station, and a fifth one is already planned. In addition, it is investing in icebreakers and aircraft adequate to operate in the Antarctic environment. Currently, its investment in Antarctica is the highest amongst the Antarctic Treaty’s member states. Peter Jennings — formerly a senior official in the Australian Ministry of Defence — and currently executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute speaks about a “deeper agenda” in China’s Antarctic policy, namely one that is aimed at securing long-term food and energy supplies.

True, the Antarctic Treaty bans any non-scientific extractive activities until 2048. But every commentator adds the caveat that the ban will be in force “as long as the Treaty does not fall apart.” And history teaches that states are willing and able to tear up treaties if they feel that circumstances justify it. Especially if they are powerful enough to do so.

And China can wield that kind of power. Not perhaps in terms of classical military strength, where the US is still ahead. But there are new warfare formats.

Many argue that in addition to air, land and sea, new battlefronts are found in the cyberspace, which is not currently a peaceful virtual territory. And many accuse China to be one of the main aggressors. Battles in the cyberspace are silent. And defeats are often keep silent, something made possible by the fact that there is no body-count to report.

Interestingly enough, neither Antarctica nor the cyberspace are conventional areas of conflict. It is very easy to avoid being pushed by a powerful partner into compromising — and hence unwanted — attitudes on traditional conflicts. It is less easy to get away from — say — a request for some friendly support on Antarctic issues or on cyberspace matters.

Hopefully, there is no small print in the agreements signed by Brazil and Argentina committing cooperation in areas which could become sensitive.

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD