OLD AND NEW FRIENDS

New approaches to Uruguay and the US, but signs of a continuation of policy with Russia

This week, President Mauricio Macri is scheduled to visit his Uruguayan counterpart, Tabaré Vázquez, which is mostly seen as a new start for the bilateral relationship. During the Kirchners’ governments, the link had soured. This was due to a number of reasons ranging from the Botnia pulp mills to the way in which Argentine trade and monetary policies had a negative collateral impact on Uruguay. Many argue that — in spite of ideological affinities — the lack of a good interpersonal chemistry at presidential level added to the problem.

By contrast, Macri’s visit to Montevideo is a friendly gesture, which takes place at a time when Uruguay becomes a beneficiary of the reversal of Argentina’s monetary and trade policies, while the Argentine president seems to be in favour of Mercosur exploring trade options in the Pacific. Which was a long standing demand of Uruguay, one that was frowned upon by the bigger partners in the bloc.

This is not the only change in the country’s foreign policy. At last month’s Mercosur summit, Macri voiced harsh words about the human rights record of Venezuela’s Maduro. Once again, that meant a far cry from the previous presidents’ policy and a friendly gesture to Maduro’s critics both in the US and the EU.

None of this should come as a surprise. Both the president and his foreign minister made it abundantly clear that the US and Europe are now topping the list of friendly partnerships to be cultivated. Critics and supporters of the Kirchner governments agreed in defining this as a return to Argentina’s traditional foreign policies. On both sides, some went as far as announcing a return to Guido Di Tella’s times of “carnal relations” with the US.

It might be the case that both sides are failing to see the full picture.

While it is true that, for better or worse, Argentina’s foreign policy is in a process of change, it is also true that the “old times” are not there anymore, because the world has changed. In addition, Argentina now has long term agreements with China and Russia which are not easy to ignore, regardless of the changes in the choice of foreign partners.

In fact, Foreign Minister Malcorra acknowledged this quite clearly. True, she stressed that the Argentine government’s interest is a rapprochement with the EU and the US as she also dismissed ideology as the main factor at the time of making foreign policy decisions.

There are those who might argue that, in some cases — China being the best example — the foreign minister is making virtue out of necessity. Argentina has entered long-term agreements with Beijing. Some would like to walk away from them. Even if — I repeat, if — they are right and such a move is desirable, it would not be so easy. While it could be possible to walk away from financial arrangements by returning the money borrowed from China’s Central Bank, the same cannot be said of agreements related to long-term infrastructure projects. Besides, of course, of the fact that it would be difficult to justify discontinuing projects of this kind without very solid reasons. Moreover, it is unlikely that the new partners in the game would demand such a thing.

There is, however, what may be considered an unfortunate exception, namely the agreement that allowed China to install an aerospace base in Neuquén. The terms of this deal appear to include access restriction for Argentine authorities. And the fact is that all of China’s aerospace activities are under military control. It is difficult to imagine the EU, let alone the US, happy with a military controlled Chinese aerospace base in South America, even if it is, at least officially, solely a “scientific” project.

The Cold War may be over forever but geopolitical tensions between the big powers persist. A current example is the fact that China is insisting on asserting its rights over the South China Sea, which is likely to increase tensions with the US and its allies in the region. Last November, US B-52 bombers flew over the area, triggering Chinese anger as the US insisted on its right to make such flights over international waters. So, on this one, the foreign minister might have an unwelcome source of concern, especially if one of the two sides — the existing China partner or the new US one — demands explicit political support. Fortunately such demand is, at this time, purely hypothetical.

That is not the case with Russia. The EU and the US imposed an embargo on food exports to Moscow as a sanction for its policy on Crimea. On the other side, Argentina specifically rejected the sanctions and continued — or perhaps increased — its food exports to Russia. This was very clearly Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s political decision, and Macri seems ready to pursue a similar strategy.

On December 16, the Argentine president and Malcorra had a phone conversation with Putin. According to the information provided by the president’s office, they agreed that Argentina would continue to be “a reliable supplier of food products” for Russia, which implies that Argentina will continue with the policy of not joining the EU and US in their sanctions policy. This, in turn, diminishes the desired impact of the sanctions. Not an insurmountable confrontation for Argentina, but clearly not an ideal signal of good will towards a new (or renewed) partner.

In all likelihood, the process of changing Argentina’s foreign policy is going to have easy moments like this week’s meeting with Uruguay. But Malcorra is also likely to have some more cumbersome moments which, as she well knows, come with the territory.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD