THE TRUMP CARD

Argentina’s relationship with the US moves into spotlight

Once again, Argentina and the United States are embroiled in deep controversy, one which still seems to be escalating. The issue is serious enough so as to have prompted President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to bring it up at the recent United Nations General Assembly. She did, however, avoid naming names. But it was obvious that the president was referring to the missing former spymaster, Antonio Stiuso, who is rumoured to have taken refuge in the US.

CFK’s supporters had the chance — once again — to celebrate the president’s anti-imperialist courage. Her detractors though were quick to point out that it is not “the done thing,”discussing these kinds of issues in a forum like the UN.

Thrilling as spy adventures may be, the importance of each specific case should not be overstated. There are the obvious exceptions. The famous Cambridge spy ring led by Kim Philby is a case in point. The tragic case of the Rosenbergs who were executed in the United States during the Cold War is another. But otherwise, governments normally prefer to deal with espionage issues relatively quietly. Spies are, after all, a fact of life. As is dealing with adversaries, ideally through quiet negotiations rather than noisy scandals.

CFK’s public criticism of US President Barack Obama is not new and in the past, has taken in a variety of issues. Earlier this year, on April 11, at the Summit of the Americas which took place in Panama City, she ridiculed Obama’s decision to declare Venezuela a national security threat to the US. And a few days later, at the opening of a Honda manufacturing facility, she picked up on a comment from the US president — regarding the fact that he preferred looking toward the future rather than back at the past, at history — to remind him about the nuclear bombs dropped by the US over Hiroshima and Nagasaki toward the end of World War II.

Government supporters feel comfortable with these unilateral skirmishes — the US very rarely gets involved in replying — and celebrate the anti-imperialistic stance and rhetoric of their leader. Opponents feel equally comfortable criticizing the government and complaining about the shift of alliances away from the US and the European Union to Russia and China.

Interestingly enough, a recent opinion survey about the confidence that the people from different countries have in the president of the US seems to reflect this. It was carried out the by US-based Pew Research Center and it covered 40 countries. The key question was: “Tell me how much confidence you have in each leader to do the right thing regarding world affairs.” The responses included “a lot of confidence,” “some confidence,” “not too much confidence,” and “no confidence at all.” But the report conflates the four options to two. “Confidence” combines the answers of those who chose “a lot of confidence” and “some confidence,” while “no confidence” tallies up the totals of “not too much confidence” and “no confidence at all.”

Only 40 percent of Argentines were “confident.” Six countries returned lower levels of trust: Lebanon (36 percent) , Venezuela (26 percent), the Palestinian Territories (15 percent), Pakistan (14 percent), Jordan (14 percent) and Russia (11 percent). By contrast, 94 percent of people in the Philippines trusted the US president, as did 88 percent of South Koreans and 83 percent of French citizens.

One thing that CFK’s critics need to accept is that either she is very good at detecting the Argentine mood, or — alternatively — she is a very persuasive leader.

In 2008, at the end of former US president George W. Bush’s time in the White House, a similar Pew survey showed that only seven percent of Argentines trusted him.

But, when Obama won the November elections, CFK’s congratulatory letter said, amongst other welcoming phrases: “The period that starts today in your country, above all else, is a great milestone in one of the most impassioned odysseys in history, the struggle against discrimination and for equality of opportunities.”

At the end of 2009, Obama’s presidency was welcomed — 60 percent of Argentines said they had confidence in the US leader.

But things change.

Four years later, in September, 2013, after a G20 meeting, CFK shot from the hip, accusing Obama of practising “fictional multilateralism.” Obama had failed the Argentine president by refusing to support her position on the holdouts/“vulture funds.”

In addition he refused to place the question of military action against Syria in the hands of the UN. Trust in the US president reflected this — only 44 percent of Argentines then said they trusted him.

In a few weeks time, Argentina will have a new president. And exactly one year later, in November, 2016, the US will hold its own presidential election. However, though the confrontations between CFK and Obama have made things difficult, there is no guarantee that the change of presidents will make things better.

Many pundits are convinced that the time for the Republicans has arrived. And that the US is entering a new conservative mood. True, this might not be a problem. In fact, some of the candidates with good chances in the Argentine election could be on the same ideological wavelength as many Republicans.

But in terms of candidacies, we are not talking about “many Republicans.” One of the candidates is ahead of all the rest in eight out of nine opinion polls within the GOP.

His name is Donald Trump and he is famous because it is said that his personal wealth will allow him to finance his campaign without the need for donors. Unfortunately, his other claim to fame is his determination to expel hundreds of thousands of Mexican immigrants back home.

The foreign affairs advisers of the next Argentine president would be well advised to start thinking hard and fast about how to manage Donald Trump sitting in the White House.

One year goes by very quickly.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD