BRICS OR BRICSA?

CFK’s desire to join the group, in vain or in vanity?

At an event which took place on September 10, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner voiced — once again — her hopes that Argentina can join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as part of the BRICS. This rather loose association of emerging countries triggers — among many Kirchnerites — a vision of a strong alliance that will challenge the existing international economic order.

A further proof of the importance that CFK assigns to joining the BRICS, is that she made a public display of handing the job of advocating for Argentina’s admittance into the group to former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was visiting the country and present at last week’s event. In her speech, CFK told Lula that she hoped that BRICS acronym would turn into BRICSA, marking Argentina’s membership of the club.

However, although it might be seen as an exercise in nitpicking, it is worth noting some objections to CFK’s initiative.

BRICSA NO WAY

Last year, Russia invited the Argentine president to attend the BRICS’ summit that took place in Brazil. This triggered the expectation that Argentina would be invited to join the group. But it turned out that it was a mere invitation to visit the club and not a membership offer. At the time, Putin’s initiative seemed to have created some discomfort amongst Russia’s partners (Brazil?) because — in the end — the guest list was hastily expanded to include other UNASUR guests. In addition, CFK did not have the satisfaction of seeing the issue of holdout/vulture funds, which was the main focus of her speech, reflected in the meeting’s closing statement. Many saw this as a bit of a dismissive gesture in terms of summit etiquette.

Last year's speculations (illusions?) about a possible invitation to Argentina to join the club were politely but clearly rejected by several BRICS representatives, including Putin himself. The message of this year’s summit was quite similar.

The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, told the press that “BRICS is not an organization, it is a collection of countries that are united by national interests. We think that the current format is an optimal one … After South Africa became participating state, the leaders decided to declare a moratorium for accepting new members.” True, he did include in his statement the line “we do not exclude anything. What will happen should be driven by national interest.” However, this last phrase seems to be an expression of diplomatic politeness more than a statement about the near future.

In fact, the original BRICS were born as BRIC, because they did not include South Africa. The four founding members, Brazil, Russia, India and China have a number of things in common. Possibly the most relevant ones are these countries’ large populations and the fact that — together — they account for a significant proportion of the world’s GDP. But, say many commentators, there was something missing. Only four of the five continents were represented. Africa was absent. And this encouraged the inclusion of South Africa in 2010.

South Africa — like Argentina — is not in the big league in terms of GDP or population. Its membership derived from the political need of having all five continents represented.

CFK’s illusions

Unfortunately for Argentina, the Latin American place is already covered by Brazil. Accepting Argentina into the club would force the BRICS to include four more members, one from each non-Latin American continent. Whilst four big partners plus a South African “smaller brother” make the group relatively easy to manage, ten members of different size in terms of both GDP and population would complicate — and perhaps paralyze — the group. This is perhaps the main reason that thwarts CFK’s illusions.

But this is not the only reason that makes the president’s push rather useless and untimely. There is also a local politics angle.

The president is almost at the end of her mandate. And joining the BRICS or, for that matter, any other international group or organization seems to be a decision that should be left for the next president to make. True, Daniel Scioli has a very good chance to be elected as Cristina’s successor and he is the FPV candidate, which she blessed. But, even if Scioli is totally in agreement with her views, she is undermining his future presidential authority by making commitments in his name.

If joining the BRICS is such an FPV priority, then it would have been a better idea to allow Scioli to voice the request to Lula, especially because he happened to be present at the event. In fact it might have provided Scioli with a good opportunity to publicize what he plans to do when he becomes president. Moreover, this might have offered him a competitive advantage given the fact that clear definitions are conspicuously absent from the messages of the three main presidential

candidates.

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD