OUR ALLIES

Moscow, Beijing seem to be more friendly — and riskier — partners

It looked to be a return to old times. The Russian government commemorated the defeat of Hitler’s Germany with an impressive military parade staged at Moscow’s Red Square. As a display of military power it was similar to those which used to take place before the Soviet Union ceased to be, back in 1989.

For different reasons, patriotic pride being one of them, many people love military parades. Children also seem to have a weak spot for these displays. However, the main objective of governments staging military parades is not the enjoyment of their citizens.

Military parades send to other governments polite messages about military strength and determination to use it if necessary. And, because of the Ukraine situation, the messages sent by Russia had clearly defined addressees: the EU and the US.

The absence of Russia’s World War II allies from the celebrations made this patently clear, bringing about a sense of déjà vu to the occasion. Which the presence — among others — of China’s President Xi Jinping made even stronger.

However, both Russia and China have abandoned Communism, which does not mean that they are now Western-style democracies. But the two countries have implemented their own — and different — style of capitalism. And they still confront with the US. These confrontations are geopolitical rather than ideological. Ukraine is not about Communism or Capitalism but about regional power, control and influence.

This is the context in which Argentina has decided that the two former communist powers are now the country’s strategic partners of choice. And this triggers concerns in the US and — to a certain extent — in the EU. There seems to be no problem with the most obvious links, namely Chinese and Russian industrial exports to Argentina and food imports from this country. But other links and partnerships continue to raise eyebrows, especially when they have to do with sensitive defence issues.

The mysterious space base being built by China in Neuquén — over which seemingly the Argentine government will have no control — does not make people in the US or the EU happy. The same can be said of Argentina’s recent announcements about military exercises to be shared with Russia.

And the quite loud rhetoric which accompanies anything related to these alliances makes matters worse.

It could be argued that the associations with the Western powers have not delivered much for Argentina. The list of complaints would be quite long and the first places would go to financial issues ranging from Judge Griesa to a quite unhelpful IMF.

There are, however, a number of risks which might outweigh the benefits of the new alliances. First and foremost there is geography. Argentina is part of the Western Hemisphere or — as some say — the US’s backyard. And, quite far away from our new strategic allies. Whether we like it or not geopolitics are a fact of life. Even if Argentina is not powerful enough to disregard this reality, some attractive features of the new alliances might appear to be.

Given the situation of Argentina’s finances, many argue that China is a much friendlier banker than — say — the IMF. And would cite the latest loans to support their case. But such loans have their own — perhaps unwritten — conditions. As many have already pointed out, China is very effective in forcing its exports on partners. Especially when such partners depend on Chinese help.

As for Russia, its own financial position is far from brilliant, which leads many to question Putin’s stability despite his current popularity. Even riskier is the fact that Russia seems committed to expand its regional power and recover its past glories. In other words, more Ukraines. If this happens, the reaction from the EU and the US is likely to be quite unfriendly. The current conflict would escalate. And the last thing that Argentina needs is to be caught in the middle of a serious political confrontation between Russia and the Western powers.

One question needs to be asked in the context of the government’s current foreign policy and alliances, and it is about Brazil. Based on geography, history and even the narrative of most Argentine politicians, Brazil should be this country’s first partner in a regional bloc which would then be entering other alliances.

An alliance with Russia or China of a regional bloc containing Argentina and Brazil would be much more effective, let alone safer. In geopolitical terms Argentina would not be a lonely ally of far-away powers but part of a regional bloc entering into alliances with third parties. Moreover, the relative power of the two sides would be more balanced. Even in sensitive issues like defence, such bloc has more choices and options and is less subject to pressure.

However, none of this hinders the legitimacy of the government’s policy or of the new alliances. True, given the relevance of the policy change, reaching a previous consensus with the opposition parties would have been a preferable way of doing things. But then, the world is not perfect.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD