SUMMIT CHOREOGRAPHY TO BE PERFORMED IN PANAMÁ

CFK, Dilma, Obama, Maduro to face tense meeting this week

Summits can be quite effective, provided they have clear –as well as limited– objectives and all the players are in the same league. The recent meeting which shaped what seems to be an agreement with Iran on nuclear policy clearly belongs to this category.

But there are other kinds of summits. Later this week, on April 10 and 11, the Republic of Panama will host the 7th Summit of the Americas’. Its official aim, seems to need a long-winded description. In this particular case, the aim is “to discuss common policy issues, affirm shared values, mobilize ambitions and commit to concerted actions, at national and regional level, in order to strengthen democracy and governance, help reduce poverty and inequities, increase opportunities in the Americas and face new challenges”. If you have had the patience to read the preceding lines, you can also find out that the official programme adds that this year the focus will be on “Prosperity with Equity: The Challenge of Cooperation in the Americas.”

Undoubtedly, these are very positive aims and the main focus is clearly targeted at a serious issue. In fact the same can be said of the previous summits as well as of many others organized every year, all around the world. Unfortunately –if one is to be realistic– what is normally left of these aims and objectives is little more than a vast number of well-written and argued papers which –normally– have little chances of implementation in the real word.

So: what is the aim of this kind summitry? One could suggest that these summits offer the leaders of the less powerful countries the chance to rub shoulders with the more relevant players. They also offer a stage where every player –big or small– has the chance to have its say, knowing that –even if delivered in front of an almost empty room– whatever is said, will go on record. Not much for Mr Obama. But very attractive for the less powerful players. Especially if they want to go on record confronting the “rich and mighty”. And in some –albeit very few– cases, the small can defeat the powerful.

One case in point is what happened at the Mar del Plata summit back in 2005, where a number of countries managed to defeat the Bush initiative of a Free Trade Area of the Americas.

Another interesting aspect of these summits are “the margins”. In fact, at next week’s summit, the most significant portions of the political action will take place on occasion and in the context of the summit but –possibly– quite unrelated to the official event.

Barack Obama will be attending and he is likely to be very much in the public eye as one of the key participants in what may become the two main shows offered at this summit: the US’ rapprochement with Cuba and the barrage of anti-US criticisms that Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro plans to voice in Panama. The main target of the Venezuelan is likely to be the recent executive order issued by Obama, declaring Venezuela a “ threat to the US’ security”.

True to style, Maduro is reported to be collecting ten million signatures that endorse a letter demanding that Obama cancel the executive order. And –apparently– he plans to hand it over (symbolically?) in Panama. Clearly not in silence.

In addition to these impromptu events, there is the game of musical chairs of the bilateral meetings which take place or fail to happen at the summits.

The Argentine president has announced that she will be attending the summit and, so far, these plans appear firm. An educated guess is that she will be quite vocal in the support of her Venezuelan colleague. In addition to the permanent defence of Maduro, the bilateral disagreements between Argentina and the US keep piling up. The latest US statements about the poor state of the Argentine economy –as well as the reply from Buenos Aires– have made the list of existing friction points (vultures / holdouts case, the new troubles with Citibank) even longer. Unsurprisingly, there seems to be no plan for a bilateral meeting between Cristina and Obama.

Brazil’s Dilma Rouseff also plans to be in Panama. And it is far from clear if she will meet her Argentine counterpart.

In theory, such a meeting should be quite necessary. Given the vital role that Brazil plays in Argentina’s trade, the recent devaluation in Argentina’s neighbour is likely to have a quite negative impact on its economy and –after all– both countries are linked by Mercosur. But sources in Brazil mention the reasons that might discourage Dilma from holding a bilateral. One is China. Some Brazilians perceive that Argentina’s recent agreement with China is a stab in their back. It creates an unwelcome competition in the area, at a rather complicated moment. The Brazilians also accuse Argentina of imposing many trade restrictions to their exports and of refusing to revise the situation, or ignoring Brazilian complaints. And , finally, there is the fact that Cristina is one of the Sao Paulo industrialists’ favourite demons, due to such trade restrictions. Given Dilma’s own drop in popularity, some of her advisers are telling her that the last thing she needs is a one-on-one a photo with Cristina.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD