BEYOND 10 DECEMBER

International alliances could shift after the elections

The seventh Summit of the Americas hosted by Panama is likely to go down in history. Not because it achieved any substantial progress on the subject of “Prosperity with Equity” which was this year’s theme. But because it provided the stage for the beginning of the thaw process between the US and Cuba. True, there are no guarantees and perhaps in only a few weeks we will all be looking at a missed opportunity. But — unless and until that happens — we have “the duty of hope,” as Raymond Aaron would have said.

In sharp contrast with the sympathetic exchanges between Raúl Castro and Barak Obama, President Cristina Kirchner shot from the hip, something that was, in fact, quite predictable. Argentina’s relations with the US have deteriorated quite significantly. In addition, there might be some mileage in anti-Americanism. According to the Pew Research Centre “less than four-in-ten Argentines (36 percent) are positively disposed toward Washington. In the seven surveys the Pew Research Centre has conducted in Argentina since 2002, never more than about four-in-ten Argentines have expressed favourable sentiment toward their big neighbour to the north.”

By contrast, there is no empirical evidence to show that this government’s choice of China and Russia as new partners has a popular support which reflects such level of anti-American sentiment. Moreover, the strategic alliance with China triggers many criticisms. Rather than ideology they have to do with business. Chinese — underpriced — imports are hurting Argentine industry. The amount of anti-dumping procedures submitted by local manufacturers against imports of that origin, amply proves this.

The same cannot be said about the alliance with Venezuela. This case is quite interesting because Maduro, and before him Chávez, are demons for some and heroes for others. The divide is mainly political and ideological, reflecting the split in Argentine society. However, some wonder if the positive views about Venezuela to be heard from the Frente Para la Victoria politicians are not limited to the circles which are closer to the president and the hard-line Kirchnerites. And if this might change after December 10, regardless of who is the new president.

Perhaps this week will offer some clues about this.

In the last few days, some snippets in news portals and the odd newspaper, have heralded a meeting which will take place at CARI, the Argentine Council for International Relations on Wednesday 15 April. The Council’s website details that the “Grupo Consenso” (Consensus Group) will make a presentation about its views on Argentina’s foreign policy challenges. Rumour has it that this Group (which came together three months ago) disagrees with the strong links to Venezuela and asks difficult questions about the alliances with Russia and China.

A look at the list of members of the group, shows that all of them are “names” in Argentina’s foreign policy circles, and most are former high-level diplomats. But, more interestingly, it shows that many of them are currently advising the three presidential hopefuls that lead in the polls. (In alphabetical order: Macri, Massa and Scioli.) This seems to be trailing some significant changes in Argentina’s foreign policy. And highlights some interesting issues.

One of them has to do with what in Argentina is called “state policy.” And refers to all significant political parties agreeing on some — very basic — strategic international issues. Most agree that this is quite desirable. The Consensus Group seems to be announcing that such state foreign policies are possible in Argentina. Many argue that this has been missing in Argentina during the Kirchner presidencies. True, today’s US shows the same shortcoming, with some Republicans giving Obama a very tough time. But this (hopefully) will prove to be the exception rather than the rule.

The Consensus Group seems to have a heavy agenda that will need basic agreements.

First, there is the issue of Venezuela, which has to do with what — in this writer’s view — is a healthy sign of political courage. These chaps seem ready to challenge the conventional wisdom of a good chunk of Argentina’s voters about the Maduro government. Which is a way of sending a signal about coherence to both local and foreign observers. Maduro’s Human Rights record is far from brilliant. And being anti-US does not suffice as an excuse for this.

Then there is the longer-term issue of Argentina’s agreements with China and Russia. While cooling off an excessive closeness with Venezuela depends only on political will, the same cannot be said of the links with Russia and — especially — China. In both cases there are long-term commitments, financial agreements and — on items like soybean exports — a degree of dependency.

In a perfect world, a president that has less than 10 months left in office should take this into account and have some consultations with the opposition parties before moving forward. But it does not seem to be the case. Moreover, the government has just announced that Cristina Kirchner will be travelling to Russia on April 22. And that the president will enter into some new — unspecified — agreements.

Argentina’s present and future foreign policy seems to be confronted with complicated problems. And it looks as if some of the members of the Consensus Group will be in charge of dealing with them. They will have to move quite carefully. Possibly starting next Wednesday.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD