OBAMA’S MISTAKE

The US decree transcends Maduro and will affect regional politics

An executive order issued by the US President stated that Nicolás Maduro is a threat to the United States. He was right: Maduro is a threat. But — and here is the mistake — Maduro is a threat to Venezuela and its citizens, not to the US or the North Americans. He has managed to cripple his country’s economy and has several opposition demonstrators dead on his record, not to mention the recent suicide (?) of a jailed opposition politician.

As Santiago O’Donnell — one of Argentina’s most knowledgeable and honest specialists in world affairs — wrote in his (reading-worthy) blog, Obama’s executive order has provided Maduro with “a phoney certificate of heroic anti-imperialism.”

Unfortunately, Obama’s mistake transcends Maduro and will affect regional politics and, perhaps, even his own presidency. The US’s relationship with Latin America has never been easy and a certain level of anti-US sentiment has always been politically correct among many sectors in the region. In the last few years, there has been a certain thaw in these feelings. And the US’s recent negotiations with Cuba have contributed to this. But the executive order, which brings back bad memories of the worst aspects of the US policy toward the region, is like a bucket of cold water on such expectations. Even the politicians who are friendlier to the US were forced to voice their criticisms, however reluctantly.

UNASUR is also affected. Maduro, as well as his defunct predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chávez, imagined this regional organization as an anti-US bastion of sorts. However, the presence of US-friendly or more moderate countries has so far prevented this, and UNASUR is a more reasonable regional forum than what many expected. But the executive order might have changed this. The organization’s statement, released two days ago was — of necessity — quite harsh. And it defined Obama’s decree as “an interventionist threat to sovereignty and the principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other states.” Moreover, they called on Washington to revoke the decree. A tall order.

If Obama revokes the decree, he will face a barrage of criticism from the Republican opposition which will accuse him of going soft on US enemies. And some within his own party may share that view. In fact, as O’Donnell suggests in his blog (http://santiagoodonnell.blogspot.com.ar/2015_03_01_archive.html#2277113325089002693 ), the Obama administration might have issued the decree as a token gesture to compensate the opposition for the current negotiations with Cuba.

So Obama is in a difficult position from which it seems impossible to recant. And so is UNASUR. Consequently, the best that both sides can expect — and hope? — is for the whole incident to be forgotten as soon as possible. Which, given Maduro’s reaction and the possibility of the Republicans getting into office next year, does not seem a realistic scenario.

Another consequence of Obama’s decision is that it has provided Maduro with a God-given excuse to tighten his grip over Venezuela. Waving the threat of the powerful US enemy, it will be easy for the government to silence the dissenters’ criticisms and, perhaps, even throw into jail those which are uncomfortably vocal.

Some pro-Maduro commentators argue that, traditionally, this kind of executive order issued by Obama precedes an armed intervention in the targeted country. This writer does not believe this to be the case. But — with the excuse of the US threat — Maduro’s government is engaging in a big military exercise. Allegedly, the purpose is to scare off Obama. Given that the possibility of small Venezuela scaring off the US does not exist, it seems that the real objective is to scare the internal opposition and, perhaps, some of Venezuela’s neighbouring governments that do not share Maduro’s ideology and politics.

But it gets worse. Caracas is making a point of highlighting that the exercises will include Russian weaponry and that some Russian ships have been “invited” to visit for the occasion. Moreover, it seems there will be Russian troops cooperating in the exercises that involve the Russian-made BM-30 Smerch missile launchers. Given the current state of relations between Russia and the US as well as the EU — especially, but not only, because of Ukraine — Maduro’s move seems quite provocative. Mainly because several voices have already expressed concern about the increase of Russian military presence in the region.

In addition to criticizing the US decree, UNASUR has sent clear messages about the need for Venezuela to reach peaceful political agreements which will strengthen democracy and limit internal confrontation. And it also makes a special point of stressing the need for free elections to take place this year. Provided the current crisis can be deescalated, then there is the possibity for UNASUR to act in the promotion of democracy. This would prove the influence of the more moderate States in the organization. And save the region from facing a very painful process.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD