MEANWHILE... BACK IN THE REGION

Yesterday was an important day on both sides of the River Plate. In Buenos Aires, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner delivered her last “State of the Nation” speech of her presidential term. Across the river, in Montevideo, Tabaré Vazquez was inaugurated — for a second time — as President, replacing José “Pepe” Mujica who — five years ago — had replaced Vázquez.

CFK’s absence from Tabaré’s inauguration was unfortunate, but unavoidable. By contrast, the Argentine government’s management of this clash of dates across the River Plate was equally unfortunate but avoidable. True, formally, it is Vice-President Amado Boudou’s role to represent the president in a circumstance like this one. But — given Mr. Boudou, and his friend and partner Mr. Alejandro Vandenbroele’s problems with the law— sending such a representative was a serious mistake. After all, Vandenbroele is a fugitive of the Uruguayan courts.

Some imagination and creativity could have gone into sending somebody else. A major minister or the Lower House speaker were possible options. And words of good wishes from the president during her state-of-the-nation speech could have helped to make a point of friendship and good will.

Even more unfortunate, is the fact yesterday’s faux pass happens at a time when the bilateral relation is far from good. Many Argentines are unaware about the tensions with Uruguay. After all, it is a very small country and does not have a serious impact on Argentina’s trade and investment figures. But what is a mild bother for Argentina is an important headache for Uruguay.

Trade protectionism complicates Uruguayan exporters. And foreign exchange limits complicate the tourism industry, vital for Uruguay. And then there are other, less visible issues. One has to do with Argentina’s policies on ports which harm the Uruguayans. Then there is the bilateral management of the shared rivers, which also shows frequent confrontations.

Many could argue that Uruguay is far from innocent and will cite the issue of the pulp mills to support their case. These voices are right. But it is a fact of life that states — and especially neighbouring states that are so asymmetrical in terms of size, population and economy — have disagreements. But good practice demands that those “facts of life” are addressed, negotiated and solved. And this seems to be the missing part. Which triggers bad feelings across the river.

Recently, the now former President Mujica said that the region needs Brazil’s leadership and Argentina should accompany, but does not. (In fact his language was far more colourful.) In another interview he said that Argentina is immersed in a “very closed project”, and that this has consequences. With the implication that they are quite negative. Uruguayan opposition politicians are even harsher. And — to be realistic — with varying levels of aggravation many Uruguayans feel the same.

In theory, those in the Foreign Affairs Ministry that have the responsibility of dealing with Uruguay should start seriously focusing on Montevideo. After all, Argentina’s strongest confrontation with Uruguay, which was about the pulp mills, happened during Tabaré’s presidency. The new Uruguayan president has made it known that there are no hard feelings and that he wants to work on improving the bilateral relation. Assuming that this is not only diplomatic politeness, it should be clear to the Argentine side that it takes two to dance that tango. So Argentine diplomats could do worse than start getting ready.

It could be argued, in the name of political realism, that Uruguay is not a priority for Argentina which now has more important partners, like China, that play in the “big leagues.” And that Uruguay’s “nuisance power” to threat Argentina is negligible. However, rather than realistic, this view could prove short-sighted. And Mercosur is the weak point. The nearly lethargic state of Mercosur is acknowledged — albeit off the record — by many government officers from all member countries. And Uruguayans and Paraguayans are quite vocal about this. In addition, the recently arrived partner, Venezuela, cannot contribute much to a possible revitalization, due to its own dramatic economic woes. To make matters worse, the Mercosur-EU agreement seems to be a never-ending odyssey. Argentina and Brazil have other options. Argentina’s recent agreement with China is a good proof of this. But the smaller partners of Mercosur do not have that many options.

Uruguay and Paraguay suffer more damages from the state of affairs in Mercosur than their larger partners. And it is public knowledge that Uruguayans, as well as Paraguayans, are wondering out loud if their countries would not be better off reaching an agreement with the United States and forgetting about Mercosur. In parallel, it is also known that many current or future policy-makers in the United States would not be adverse to facilitating an erosion of Mercosur. It would allow them to strengthen their regional presence at a time when Argentina seems to be looking East.

Possibly the first inkling of such a move would make much noise. Especially within Uruguay’s Broad Front. But it should be noted that the Uruguayan leadership can be quite pragmatic. So, perhaps the time has come to start mending fences across the river.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD