OPTIONS AND PRUDENCE

All politics are domestic. This includes a country’s international policies. However, governments are or should be expected to base their foreign policy-making on reasons which go beyond short-term local political considerations.

Over the last 30 days, the government seems to have made a significant shift in Argentina’s international alliances and partnerships. This has gone down well with the president’s staunchest supporters.

It seems legitimate, however, to ask some questions about the implementation of these changes as well as the strategic vision behind them.

At the end of last week, the president made public the — very — strongly-worded letter she had sent to Obama to complain about the fact that Nancy E. Soderberg is both chair of the US government’s Public Interest Declassification Board (PIDB) and co-chair of American Task Force Argentina (ATFA). The latter is the aggressive lobbying group that operates on behalf of Argentina’s holdout/vulture creditors.

The president’s point seems quite valid. There is a clear conflict of interest between Soderberg’s PIDB position and her moonlighting as a lobbyist against Argentina. What does not seem an adequate strategy is turning this into an issue at a presidential level. The same point could have been made — for the record — through diplomatic channels. Unfortunately, with equally slim chances of success.

Speeches like the one Fernández de Kirchner delivered at the last UN General Assembly might be important in terms of stating principles. And might earn some political points in Argentina. But not in the US. The same can be said about bravado letters to the US president.

So much for strategy. But there is another (equally worrying) point. ATFA has been around for some time. In fact our controversial moonlighter made a bizarre lobbying visit to Argentina on July 10 which, obviously did not go unnoticed by the government.

According to the PIDB’s website, Soderberg’s appointment dates back to November 16, 2012. But Argentine diplomats were apparently unaware of this conflict of interest.

Thanks to Google, finding out about somebody holding a government and a lobbying job at the same time does not take more than 20 minutes. And googling a player in the confrontation with the holdouts/vultures would be — one expects — a routine job for the diplomats involved.

So either the Argentine Embassy in Washington was looking the other way or the information was sent back to Buenos Aires and nobody acted on it before last week. Or, there might — just might — be another explanation. The government has been aware of the situation the whole time but made the tactical decision to only bring it up now.

This would be very good news. Especially because Argentina seems to be making a major foreign policy shift. At a time when tensions between Russia and the EU-US partnership are on the increase over issues like Ukraine, the Argentine government is getting significantly closer to Russia. It could be argued that business is business.

Consequently, selling foodstuffs despite the EU-US sanctions on Russia is simply a commercial decision. But the Argentine government’s narrative, which might delight its supporters and even go down well with part of the Argentine electorate, is not going down well with Western Europeans or the US. Which is not necessarily bad news.

It is not written in stone that a South American country cannot change its alignments and alliances. In fact it could be a very good strategy. Many of the president’s closest supporters are convinced that the traditional Western powers are falling apart and that the time has come for a change. But such a shift needs not only a well-thought, long-term strategy but also fine-tuned and professional implementation. It also requires a strong domestic consensus. One wonders which of these conditions — if any — have been met.

Argentine diplomacy does not demonstrate such a fine record. In fact, things with our brotherly neighbours are not exactly brilliant. Mercosur is frozen. The Uruguayans are not happy with Argentina. And the person most likely to become the next president of Uruguay, Tabaré Vázquez, is not precisely in love with Argentina’s current administration. In Paraguay, many say Argentina has a “vulture” policy regarding Yacyretá. And before thinking that powerful Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff will stand by us, perhaps we should think twice.

The Brazilian business sector keeps complaining about Argentine protectionism. True, their candidate lost the election. But Roussef’s advantage is narrow and she has already signalled her willingness to have a dialogue with all sectors.

Perhaps Argentine politicians should remember that Russia is far away, so keeping foreign policy options open might be wise. And that prudence is the best element of courage.

@andresfederman

CREDITS: BUENOS AIRES HERALD